Stade Georges Lefevre · Referee Alexandra Collin · Analysis updated 09:05 UTC
Paris Saint Germain W vs Lyon W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain W and 2.69 for Lyon W, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives Lyon W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lyon W win
71.0% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 2.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paris Saint Germain W home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lyon W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lyon W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 13% / 16% / 71% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.10 goals for Paris Saint Germain W and 2.69 for Lyon W, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
29%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.0%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–37.4%
- 1–16.7%
Recent form
Paris Saint Germain W
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 1-1 (D)
Lyon W
- 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T19:05:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Servette Chênois W · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Feminine Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 18 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Paris FC W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Marseille W | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 9 |
| 5 | Nantes W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Le Havre W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Strasbourg W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Montpellier W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | FC Fleury 91 W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Saint-Malo W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Lens W | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Toulouse W | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lyon W win, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.