· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Parla Escuela vs Fuenlabrada Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Parla Escuela and 1.45 for Fuenlabrada, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Parla Escuela the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fuenlabrada away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parla Escuela to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Parla Escuela and 1.45 for Fuenlabrada, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Parla Escuela
- 2024-11-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sonseca · 1-0 (W)
Fuenlabrada
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parla Escuela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villanueva Pardillo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Adarve · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Colonia Moscardó | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | Cala Pozuelo | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Galapagar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Trival Valderas | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Móstoles | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Fuenlabrada | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Unión Adarve | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | RC Alcobendas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Leganés II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Torrejón | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Parla Escuela | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Alcobendas Sport | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Aranjuez | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Villanueva Pardillo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | SS Reyes II | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.