· Analysis updated 10:43 UTC
Parma U20 vs Genoa U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Parma U20 and 1.29 for Genoa U20, a combined total of 3.41. That distribution gives Parma U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Parma U20 win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parma U20 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Genoa U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parma U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.12 goals for Parma U20 and 1.29 for Genoa U20, a combined 3.41 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 1–19.0%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–07.0%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Parma U20
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bologna U20 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:45:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Cagliari U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio U20 · 1-0 (W)
Genoa U20
- 2026-08-23T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Internazionale U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Internazionale U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cesena U20 · 3-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato Primavera - 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internazionale U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Parma U20 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Bologna U20 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Empoli U20 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Roma U20 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Genoa U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Lazio U20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Fiorentina U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Lecce U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Cesena U20 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Milan U20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Como U20 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | Torino U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Sassuolo U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | Juventus U20 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Cagliari U20 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Hellas Verona U20 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Atalanta U20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 | Monza U20 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Albinoleffe U20 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Parma U20 win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.