Stadio Ennio Tardini · Analysis updated 13:07 UTC
Parma vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Parma and 1.29 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives Parma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parma home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Parma and 1.29 for Fiorentina, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Parma
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-2 (L)
Fiorentina
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.