Stadio Ennio Tardini · Referee Maurizio Mariani, Italy · Analysis updated 20:46 UTC
Parma vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Parma and 0.99 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Genoa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.0% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parma home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Genoa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 32% / 32% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Parma and 0.99 for Genoa, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 0–114.8%
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–27.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 62.5% vs market 53.3%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 53.3% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.50 | 62.4% | 63.8% | 1.57 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.90 | 31.6% | 32.0% | 3.13 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.6% | 31.8% | 3.14 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 36.7% | 36.2% | 2.76 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.8% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 68.8% | 68.0% | 1.47 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.7% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Parma
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-2 (L)
Genoa
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Parma 2-1 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2026-01-18T11:30:00.000Z · Parma 0-0 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2025-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · Parma 0-0 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2025-01-12T11:30:00.000Z · Parma 0-1 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2024-11-04T17:30:00.000Z · Parma 0-1 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2023-02-05T15:15:00.000Z · Parma 2-0 Genoa (Serie B)
- 2022-09-03T14:15:00.000Z · Parma 3-3 Genoa (Serie B)
- 2021-03-19T19:45:00.000Z · Parma 1-2 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2020-11-30T19:45:00.000Z · Parma 2-1 Genoa (Serie A)
- 2020-06-23T19:45:00.000Z · Parma 4-1 Genoa (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.