Stadio Ennio Tardini · Analysis updated 08:03 UTC
Parma vs Inter Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Parma and 1.14 for Inter, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Parma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.7%
Why the model likes this
Parma home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Parma and 1.14 for Inter, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Parma
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 0-0 (D)
Inter
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs AC Milan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.