Stadio Ennio Tardini · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC
Parma vs Lazio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Parma and 1.42 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Lazio the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lazio win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parma home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lazio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lazio to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 18% / 27% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Parma and 1.42 for Lazio, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.5%
- 0–212.4%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Parma
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-2 (L)
Lazio
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | AS Roma | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 17 |
| 3 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Frosinone | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 7 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Napoli | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Genoa | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lazio win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.