Stadio Ennio Tardini · Referee Federico La Penna, Italy · Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Parma vs Monza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Parma and 0.92 for Monza, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Parma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parma home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 34% / 32% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Parma and 0.92 for Monza, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.7%
- 1–014.6%
- 0–114.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–06.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 63.6% vs market 48.9%, edge +14.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.9% | 63.6% | 1.57 | +14.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 65.4% | 65.9% | 1.52 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.3% | 67.7% | 1.48 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 32.1% | 32.3% | 3.10 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 33.6% | 33.6% | 2.98 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.70 | 34.3% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.3% | 66.4% | 1.51 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 51.1% | 36.4% | 2.75 | -14.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Parma
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 0-2 (L)
Monza
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stade Brestois 29 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cremonese · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.