Stadio Ennio Tardini · Referee J. Gallorini · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Parma W vs Inter Milano W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.79 expected goals for Parma W and 1.87 for Inter Milano W, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Inter Milano W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Inter Milano W win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
0.79 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parma W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Milano W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Inter Milano W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 15% / 22% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.79 goals for Parma W and 1.87 for Inter Milano W, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.1%
- 0–212.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–37.7%
Recent form
Parma W
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Milano W · 0-1 (L)
Inter Milano W
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Häcken W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventus W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lazio W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Cup Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Lazio W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Juventus W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Sassuolo W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | AC Milan W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Fiorentina W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Roma W | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Como W | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Parma W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Ternana W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Napoli W | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Inter Milano W win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.