Stadio Ennio Tardini · Referee F. Tassano · Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Parma W vs Ternana W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Parma W and 0.78 for Ternana W, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Parma W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Parma W win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Parma W home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ternana W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Parma W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 31% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Parma W and 0.78 for Ternana W, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 62.7% vs market 50.7%, edge +12.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 50.7% | 62.7% | 1.59 | +12.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 53.8% | 55.0% | 1.82 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 30.4% | 30.5% | 3.28 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 24.5% | 24.5% | 4.08 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 45.2% | 45.0% | 2.22 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.0% | 69.5% | 1.44 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.3% | 75.5% | 1.32 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 49.3% | 37.3% | 2.68 | -12.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Parma W
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Ternana W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lazio W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Milano W · 0-1 (L)
Ternana W
- 2026-10-03T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Parma W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Como W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Roma W · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Roma W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Como 1907 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Ternana W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Fiorentina W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Como W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Napoli W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Juventus W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | AC Milan W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 10 | Lazio W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 11 | Parma W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 12 | Sassuolo W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Parma W win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.