· Analysis updated 21:43 UTC
Paro vs Ugyen Academy Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Paro and 0.49 for Ugyen Academy, a combined total of 4.99. That distribution gives Paro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 96%, with the draw at 3%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 96% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paro win
95.6% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ugyen Academy away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 96%, against 96% / 3% / 1% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Paro and 0.49 for Ugyen Academy, a combined 4.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 37%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
99%
Double chance 12
97%
Double chance X2
5%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–011.7%
- 5–010.5%
- 3–010.4%
- 6–07.9%
- 2–06.9%
Recent form
Paro
Ugyen Academy
- 2026-08-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Tensung · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bhutan U19 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs RTC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Transport United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Transport United · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paro | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 49 |
| 2 | Thimphu City | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 40 |
| 3 | Thimphu | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Transport United | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | RTC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Drukpa | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Bhutan U19 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 20 |
| 8 | Tsirang | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -21 | 16 |
| 9 | Tensung | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -39 | 8 |
| 10 | Ugyen Academy | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | -46 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paro win, at 95.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 96% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.