Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Damash Gilanian Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Pars Jonoubi JAM and 0.48 for Damash Gilanian, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Pars Jonoubi JAM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pars Jonoubi JAM win

69.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 0.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pars Jonoubi JAM home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Damash Gilanian away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pars Jonoubi JAM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 22% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Pars Jonoubi JAM and 0.48 for Damash Gilanian, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Pars Jonoubi JAM win69%

Draw22%

Damash Gilanian win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–018.7%
2–016.6%
0–010.5%
3–09.8%
1–18.9%

Recent form

Pars Jonoubi JAM

2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Be'sat Kermanshah · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Damash Gilanian · 4-0 (W)
2026-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Niroye Zamini · 3-0 (W)
2026-06-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Navad Urmia · 2-0 (W)
2026-06-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Kerman · 1-1 (D)

Damash Gilanian

2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Fard Alborz · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pars Jonoubi JAM · 0-4 (L)
2026-07-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ario Eslamshahr · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-27T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Havadar · 1-4 (L)
2026-06-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mes Soongoun · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Azadegan League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	4	2	0	6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	4	2	0	4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	4	0	2	4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	3	3	0	3	12
5	Saipa	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	2	2	2	2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	2	2	2	1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	2	1	3	1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	1	4	1	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	1	3	2	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	0	3	3	-3	3
16	Havadar	6	0	2	4	-7	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pars Jonoubi JAM win, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.