· Analysis updated 09:27 UTC
Pars Jonoubi JAM vs Naft Bandar Abbas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Pars Jonoubi JAM and 0.59 for Naft Bandar Abbas, a combined total of 1.56. That distribution gives Pars Jonoubi JAM the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 21% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
78.3% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pars Jonoubi JAM home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Naft Bandar Abbas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pars Jonoubi JAM to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 35% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.97 goals for Pars Jonoubi JAM and 0.59 for Naft Bandar Abbas, a combined 1.56 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.1%
- 1–020.4%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.0%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Pars Jonoubi JAM
- 2026-07-16T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Be'sat Kermanshah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Damash Gilanian · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Niroye Zamini · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Navad Urmia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Mes Kerman · 1-1 (D)
Naft Bandar Abbas
- 2026-10-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Havadar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Be'sat Kermanshah · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Naft Gachsaran · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Naft Masjed Soleyman · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shahin Bandar Ameri · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Azadegan League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saipa | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Mes Rafsanjan | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ario Eslamshahr | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Fard Alborz | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Niroye Zamini | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Mes Kerman | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Naft Gachsaran | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Mes Soongoun | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Havadar | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 78.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 21%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.