Firhill Stadium · Referee D. McFarlane · Analysis updated 00:06 UTC
Partick vs Livingston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Partick and 0.57 for Livingston, a combined total of 1.81. That distribution gives Partick the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Partick win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Partick home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Livingston away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Partick to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 30% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Partick and 0.57 for Livingston, a combined 1.81 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.2%
- 0–016.3%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Partick
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
Livingston
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dunfermline · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Partick · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayr Utd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Raith Rovers · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Partick win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.