Firhill Stadium · Referee C. Stirling · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Partick vs Raith Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Partick and 0.92 for Raith Rovers, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives Raith Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.1% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Partick home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Raith Rovers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Raith Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 29% / 34% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Partick and 0.92 for Raith Rovers, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.3%
- 0–116.9%
- 1–014.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Partick
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ayr Utd · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Livingston · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Arbroath · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Raith Rovers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 0-1 (L)
Raith Rovers
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stenhousemuir · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen's Park · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Morton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Livingston · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partick · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Inverness CT | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Livingston | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 9 | Morton | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 10 | Queen's Park | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.