· Analysis updated 21:51 UTC
Partizán Bardejov vs Kežmarok Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.10 expected goals for Partizán Bardejov and 0.85 for Kežmarok, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Partizán Bardejov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Partizán Bardejov win
81.5% probability
Expected goals
3.10 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Partizán Bardejov home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Partizán Bardejov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 12% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.10 goals for Partizán Bardejov and 0.85 for Kežmarok, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 54%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.6%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–17.9%
- 4–07.4%
Recent form
Partizán Bardejov
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Poprad · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vranov nad Topľou · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipany · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Košice · 1-2 (L)
Kežmarok
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Partizán Bardejov | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Spišská Nová Ves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lipany | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Poprad | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Snina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Slávia TU Košice | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 13 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Partizán Bardejov win, at 81.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.