· Analysis updated 09:44 UTC
Partizán Bardejov vs Vranov nad Topľou Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Partizán Bardejov and 1.30 for Vranov nad Topľou, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Partizán Bardejov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Partizán Bardejov win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Partizán Bardejov home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vranov nad Topľou away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–16.8%
- 1–06.8%
Recent form
Partizán Bardejov
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Poprad · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vranov nad Topľou · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipany · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotíva Košice · 1-2 (L)
Vranov nad Topľou
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dukla Banská Bystrica · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizán Bardejov · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotíva Košice · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Kežmarok · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 1-2 Vranov nad Topľou (3. liga - East)
- 2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 1-2 Vranov nad Topľou (Cup)
- 2025-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 4-1 Vranov nad Topľou (Cup)
- 2025-03-01T13:30:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 1-4 Vranov nad Topľou (3. liga - East)
- 2024-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 1-3 Vranov nad Topľou (3. liga - East)
- 2024-05-04T15:00:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 0-2 Vranov nad Topľou (3. liga - East)
- 2023-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 0-6 Vranov nad Topľou (3. liga - East)
- 2023-03-04T13:00:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 1-2 Vranov nad Topľou (3. liga - East)
- 2022-08-06T15:00:00.000Z · Partizán Bardejov 1-1 Vranov nad Topľou (3. liga - East)
3. liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lokomotíva Košice | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Spartak Medzev | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Raslavice | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Stará Ľubovňa | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Partizán Bardejov | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Spišská Nová Ves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Lipany | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Poprad | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | MSK Tesla Stropkov | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Snina | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Slávia TU Košice | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Vranov nad Topľou | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 13 |
| 13 | Slovan Sabinov | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -14 | 7 |
| 14 | Kežmarok | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -26 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Partizán Bardejov win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.