Arena e Demave · Analysis updated 15:32 UTC
Partizani vs Dinamo Tirana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Partizani and 1.47 for Dinamo Tirana, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Dinamo Tirana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dinamo Tirana win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Partizani home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Tirana away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Partizani
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Laci · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-0 (D)
Dinamo Tirana
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Laci · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Partizani · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Partizani 2-4 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Partizani 2-1 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2026-03-09T18:00:00.000Z · Partizani 2-0 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-12-23T17:00:00.000Z · Partizani 1-3 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-10-29T18:30:00.000Z · Partizani 0-2 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-05-10T17:00:00.000Z · Partizani 2-1 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-03-27T16:00:00.000Z · Partizani 0-1 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2025-01-25T15:30:00.000Z · Partizani 1-1 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2024-11-09T16:00:00.000Z · Partizani 2-1 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
- 2024-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Partizani 2-2 Dinamo Tirana (Superliga)
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 6 | AF Elbasani | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Laci | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Partizani | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dinamo Tirana win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.