Arena e Demave · Analysis updated 06:11 UTC
Partizani vs Teuta Durrës Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.86 expected goals for Partizani and 0.89 for Teuta Durrës, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Teuta Durrës the largest share of the 1X2 market at 34%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 34% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.6% probability
Expected goals
0.86 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Partizani home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Teuta Durrës away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Teuta Durrës to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 34%, against 32% / 34% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.86 goals for Partizani and 0.89 for Teuta Durrës, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–017.4%
- 0–115.5%
- 1–014.9%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–26.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.65 (model 66.0% vs market 56.0%, edge +10.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.65 | 56.0% | 66.0% | 1.52 | +10.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 66.7% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.70 | 33.2% | 33.5% | 2.99 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 34.2% | 34.1% | 2.93 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 32.6% | 32.4% | 3.09 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 66.7% | 66.5% | 1.50 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.7% | 65.9% | 1.52 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.0% | 34.0% | 2.94 | -10.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Partizani
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tirana · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drenica Skënderaj · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-2 (L)
Teuta Durrës
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AF Elbasani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tirana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Kukesi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Tirana | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Laci | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 6 | Skenderbeu Korce | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | AF Elbasani | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Vora | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Partizani | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.