Arena e Demave · Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Partizani vs Tirana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Partizani and 1.55 for Tirana, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Partizani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Partizani home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tirana away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Partizani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Partizani and 1.55 for Tirana, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Partizani
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Tirana · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Vllaznia Shkodër · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Laci · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Teuta Durrës · 0-0 (D)
Tirana
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Partizani · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AF Elbasani · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Skenderbeu Korce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vora · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Teuta Durrës · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teuta Durrës | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Tirana | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Tirana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vora | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 6 | AF Elbasani | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Laci | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Skenderbeu Korce | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Vllaznia Shkodër | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 10 | Partizani | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.