Stadionul CFR · Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
Paşcani vs Politehnica Iasi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Paşcani and 1.26 for Politehnica Iasi, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Paşcani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paşcani win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paşcani home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Politehnica Iasi away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paşcani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Paşcani and 1.26 for Politehnica Iasi, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Paşcani
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gheorgheni · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Adjud · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacău II · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Soimii Gura Humorului · 1-2 (L)
Politehnica Iasi
- 2026-05-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Slatina · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-02T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Gloria Bistriţa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Muscelul Câmpulung Elite · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalul Buzău · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs ASA Targu Mures · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paşcani win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.