Stadionul CFR · Analysis updated 01:02 UTC
Paşcani vs Soimii Gura Humorului Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Paşcani and 2.13 for Soimii Gura Humorului, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives Paşcani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paşcani win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Paşcani home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Soimii Gura Humorului away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paşcani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 18% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Paşcani and 2.13 for Soimii Gura Humorului, a combined 4.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–16.2%
- 3–25.9%
- 3–15.6%
- 1–24.9%
Recent form
Paşcani
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM FC Vaslui · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gheorgheni · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Adjud · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bacău II · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Soimii Gura Humorului · 1-2 (L)
Soimii Gura Humorului
- 2026-05-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Târgu Secuiesc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Blejoi · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Lieşti · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paşcani win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.