· Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Patriotas U20 vs Coritiba U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Patriotas U20 and 1.81 for Coritiba U20, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Coritiba U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Coritiba U20 win
58.2% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Patriotas U20 home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Coritiba U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 19% / 23% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Patriotas U20 and 1.81 for Coritiba U20, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.8%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.6%
Recent form
Patriotas U20
- 2026-06-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Araucaria U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Araucaria U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs City London U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs City London U20 · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba U20 · 0-0 (D)
Coritiba U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paranaense U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coritiba U20 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 2 | Athletico PR U20 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Cascavel U20 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | City London U20 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 5 | Operário PR U20 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Galo Maringá U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Araucaria U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 8 | Patriotas U20 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 9 | Parana Clube U20 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | CE União U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Hope Internacional U20 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | Cianorte U20 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Coritiba U20 win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.