Estadio La Independencia · Analysis updated 14:40 UTC
Patriotas vs Depor FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Patriotas and 1.29 for Depor FC, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Patriotas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Patriotas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Depor FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Patriotas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Patriotas and 1.29 for Depor FC, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.6%
Recent form
Patriotas
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Union Magdalena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Quindio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Tigres FC · 1-0 (W)
Depor FC
- 2026-10-20T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Quindio · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Cartagena · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Cundinamarca · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Envigado · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.