Estadio La Independencia · Analysis updated 13:15 UTC
Patriotas vs Tigres FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Patriotas and 1.26 for Tigres FC, a combined total of 2.09. That distribution gives Tigres FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tigres FC win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Patriotas home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tigres FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tigres FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 24% / 29% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Patriotas and 1.26 for Tigres FC, a combined 2.09 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.6%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.3%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–29.8%
Recent form
Patriotas
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Union Magdalena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Quindio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Tigres FC · 1-0 (W)
Tigres FC
- 2026-10-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Bogota FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tigres FC win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.