· Analysis updated 15:35 UTC
Patronato vs Almagro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Patronato and 0.57 for Almagro, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Patronato the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Patronato win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.57
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Patronato home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Almagro away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Patronato to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 30% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Patronato and 0.57 for Almagro, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.1%
- 0–015.7%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.50 (model 68.6% vs market 61.5%, edge +7.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.50 | 61.5% | 68.6% | 1.46 | +7.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.10 | 44.9% | 46.1% | 2.17 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.70 | 53.8% | 54.0% | 1.85 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.5% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 5.50 | 16.6% | 16.6% | 6.02 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 70.6% | 1.42 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 84.2% | 83.5% | 1.20 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.40 | 38.5% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -7.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Patronato
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martin S.J. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Nueva Chicago · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Temperley · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Maipu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Almagro · 0-1 (L)
Almagro
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Chacarita Juniors · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martin S.J. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Nueva Chicago · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Temperley · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Maipu · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 65 |
| 2 | Godoy Cruz | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 60 |
| 3 | Deportivo Moron | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 58 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 54 |
| 5 | Colon Santa Fe | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 54 |
| 6 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 51 |
| 7 | Almirante Brown | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 48 |
| 8 | CA Estudiantes | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 48 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 1 | 41 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -3 | 40 |
| 11 | Racing Cordoba | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | Atletico Mitre | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | -8 | 39 |
| 13 | Defensores De Belgrano | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | -7 | 38 |
| 14 | San Telmo | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -9 | 38 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 | All Boys | 34 | 6 | 17 | 11 | -10 | 35 |
| 17 | Acassuso | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | -10 | 33 |
| 18 | San Miguel | 34 | 6 | 14 | 14 | -14 | 32 |
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 34 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 62 |
| 2 | Temperley | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 60 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 58 |
| 4 | Atlanta | 34 | 18 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 58 |
| 5 | Gimnasia Y Tiro | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 52 |
| 6 | Midland | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 51 |
| 7 | Colegiales | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 50 |
| 8 | Deportivo Maipu | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 48 |
| 9 | San Martin S.J. | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 47 |
| 10 | San Martin Tucuman | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 46 |
| 11 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | -6 | 45 |
| 12 | Almagro | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | -10 | 41 |
| 13 | Agropecuario | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -11 | 40 |
| 14 | Quilmes | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 39 |
| 15 | Patronato | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | -4 | 37 |
| 16 | Chacarita Juniors | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | -9 | 36 |
| 17 | Nueva Chicago | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | -9 | 36 |
| 18 | Club Atlético Güemes | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -32 | 26 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Patronato win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.