Rainbow Stadium · Analysis updated 13:09 UTC
Pattani vs Chainat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Pattani and 1.15 for Chainat, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Pattani the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pattani win
50.8% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chainat away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pattani to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Pattani and 1.15 for Chainat, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Pattani
Chainat
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uttaradit · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Songkhla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Chainat | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Uttaradit | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Satun | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Kanchanaburi | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Chiangmai United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Police Tero | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Muang Loei United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pattani win, at 50.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.