· Analysis updated 16:46 UTC
Păuleşti vs Plopeni Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Păuleşti and 1.63 for Plopeni, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Plopeni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Plopeni win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Păuleşti home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Plopeni away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.2%
Recent form
Păuleşti
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Draganesti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Corbeanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunari · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Flacăra Moreni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Urban Titu · 0-3 (L)
Plopeni
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Râmnicu Sărat · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pucioasa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Voința Crevedia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blejoi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Progresul Draganesti · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · Păuleşti 0-1 Plopeni (Liga III - Serie 3)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · Păuleşti 2-1 Plopeni (Liga III - Serie 2)
- 2025-11-29T12:00:00.000Z · Păuleşti 1-1 Plopeni (Liga III - Serie 2)
- 2025-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Păuleşti 3-1 Plopeni (Liga III - Serie 2)
- 2025-07-30T14:30:00.000Z · Păuleşti 1-2 Plopeni (Cupa României)
- 2024-07-31T14:30:00.000Z · Păuleşti 1-3 Plopeni (Cupa României)
- 2024-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Păuleşti 2-4 Plopeni (Liga III - Serie 4)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Păuleşti 2-4 Plopeni (Liga III - Serie 4)
- 2023-11-04T12:00:00.000Z · Păuleşti 1-2 Plopeni (Liga III - Serie 4)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Păuleşti 1-4 Plopeni (Liga III - Serie 4)
Liga III - Serie 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flacăra Moreni | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Tunari | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 | Blejoi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Berca | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Progresul Draganesti | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Voința Crevedia | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Plopeni | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 8 | Pucioasa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Urban Titu | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Râmnicu Sărat | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Viitorul Corbeanca | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 12 | Păuleşti | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Plopeni win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.