· Analysis updated 09:27 UTC
Păuleşti vs Râmnicu Sărat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Păuleşti and 1.45 for Râmnicu Sărat, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Păuleşti the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Păuleşti win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Păuleşti home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Râmnicu Sărat away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Păuleşti to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Păuleşti and 1.45 for Râmnicu Sărat, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.5%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.2%
Recent form
Păuleşti
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Progresul Draganesti · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Viitorul Corbeanca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tunari · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Flacăra Moreni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Urban Titu · 0-3 (L)
Râmnicu Sărat
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Urban Titu · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Berca · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Plopeni · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Flacăra Moreni · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Pucioasa · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga III - Serie 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corona Braşov | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 26 |
| 2 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Baicoi | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Olimpic Zărneşti | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 19 |
| 5 | Inter Sibiu | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | Sepsi II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Săcele | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Valenii de Munte | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Tricolorul Breaza | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 11 | Kids Tâmpa Braşov | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 3 |
| 12 | Carpati Covasna | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Păuleşti win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.