· Analysis updated 19:37 UTC
Păușești vs CSM Targu Jiu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Păușești and 1.33 for CSM Targu Jiu, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives CSM Targu Jiu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Păușești home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CSM Targu Jiu away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSM Targu Jiu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Păușești and 1.33 for CSM Targu Jiu, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–07.9%
Recent form
Păușești
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Minerul Lupeni · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs CS U Craiova II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Filiaşi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oltul Curtişoara · 0-1 (L)
CSM Targu Jiu
- 2026-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Minerul Lupeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Păușești · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Filiaşi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oltul Curtişoara · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.