· Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Pavia vs Crema Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Pavia and 0.76 for Crema, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Pavia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pavia win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pavia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crema away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pavia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Pavia and 0.76 for Crema, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.8%
- 2–012.3%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Pavia
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arconatese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant'Angelo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Solbiatese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 0-4 (L)
Crema
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lentigione · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontedera · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coriano · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Città di Varese · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellanzese · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Sant'Angelo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Città di Varese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | USD Casatese | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Pavia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Solbiatese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Correggese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 13 | Crema | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | Varesina | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Arconatese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 16 | Coriano | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pavia win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.