· Analysis updated 16:48 UTC
Pavia vs Pro Patria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Pavia and 0.99 for Pro Patria, a combined total of 1.84. That distribution gives Pro Patria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.3% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pavia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pro Patria away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pro Patria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 30% / 32% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.84 goals for Pavia and 0.99 for Pro Patria, a combined 1.84 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.9%
- 0–115.8%
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Pavia
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arconatese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant'Angelo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Solbiatese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 0-4 (L)
Pro Patria
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Città di Varese · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Varesina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Solbiatese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Arconatese · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 21 |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Lentigione | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Castellanzese | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14 |
| 6 | USD Casatese | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Correggese | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 9 | Città di Varese | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Pavia | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Sant'Angelo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Varesina | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Solbiatese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Coriano | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Crema | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Arconatese | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.