Stadio Pietro Fortunati · Analysis updated 00:11 UTC
Pavia vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Pavia and 1.20 for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Virtus Ciserano Bergamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.9% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pavia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Virtus Ciserano Bergamo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 29% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Pavia and 1.20 for Virtus Ciserano Bergamo, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
Pavia
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arconatese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant'Angelo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Solbiatese · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Crema · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Albinoleffe · 0-4 (L)
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tritium · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nibbiano & Valtidone · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Verona · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Milano · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · Pavia 3-0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (Serie D - Girone B)
- 2025-12-14T13:30:00.000Z · Pavia 1-1 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (Serie D - Girone B)
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Chievo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 3 | Piacenza | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Real Calepina | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Virtus Verona | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | Pavonese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Pro Palazzolo | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 12 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Club Milano | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | Rovato Vertovese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 18 | Tritium | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.