· Analysis updated 03:50 UTC
Pavlikeni vs Juventus Malchika Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for Pavlikeni and 0.79 for Juventus Malchika, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Pavlikeni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pavlikeni win
70.4% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pavlikeni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 18% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for Pavlikeni and 0.79 for Juventus Malchika, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 49%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 70% with high confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.2%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
Pavlikeni
Juventus Malchika
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yantra Polski Trambesh · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Etar VT II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Partizan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Litex · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pavlikeni win, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.