· Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
Pavlikeni vs OFK Levski Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Pavlikeni and 1.14 for OFK Levski, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Pavlikeni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.4% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
OFK Levski away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pavlikeni to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 28% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Pavlikeni and 1.14 for OFK Levski, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Pavlikeni
OFK Levski
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pavlikeni · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Troyan 2025 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pavlikeni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom Berkovitsa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Mezdra · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 1-0 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
- 2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 1-2 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 3-0 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
- 2025-03-22T13:00:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 3-0 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 0-3 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
- 2024-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 3-2 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
- 2023-10-21T13:00:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 0-1 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
- 2022-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 4-1 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
- 2022-03-19T12:30:00.000Z · Pavlikeni 1-0 OFK Levski (Third League - Northwest)
Third League - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Akademik Svishtov | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | Lokomotiv Mezdra | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Yantra Polski Trambesh | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Kom Berkovitsa | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Partizan | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Chavdar Troyan | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Etar VT II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Sevlievo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Pavlikeni | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Bdin | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | OFK Levski | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Spartak Pleven II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 6 |
| 13 | Juventus Malchika | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.