Paykan vs Mes Rafsanjan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Paykan and 0.58 for Mes Rafsanjan, a combined total of 1.78. That distribution gives Paykan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Paykan win

51.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Paykan home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paykan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 31% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Paykan and 0.58 for Mes Rafsanjan, a combined 1.78 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 31%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.

Match result (1X2)

Paykan win51%

Draw31%

Mes Rafsanjan win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals53%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals11%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–020.3%
0–016.9%
2–012.2%
1–111.7%
0–19.7%

Recent form

Paykan

2026-09-06T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Sanat Naft · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ZOB Ahan · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kheybar Khorramabad · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-18T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Gol Gohar · 0-0 (D)

Mes Rafsanjan

2026-07-22T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Sanat Naft · 0-3 (L)
2026-02-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-02-14T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Paykan · 2-0 (W)
2026-02-07T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Esteghlal Khuzestan · 0-1 (L)
2026-02-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Shams Azar Qazvin · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persepolis FC	9	6	2	1	14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	5	5	0	9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	5	2	2	7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	4	4	1	4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	3	5	2	3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	3	5	2	2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	4	1	5	1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	3	4	2	-2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	3	4	3	-4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Paykan	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Malavan	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	1	5	4	-4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	1	4	4	-3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	1	4	5	-10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	0	5	4	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Paykan win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.