Pays de Cassel vs Le Pays du Valois Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Pays de Cassel and 1.43 for Le Pays du Valois, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Pays de Cassel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pays de Cassel home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Pays du Valois away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Pays de Cassel win42%

Draw24%

Le Pays du Valois win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–18.9%
1–27.9%
1–07.8%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Pays de Cassel

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Neuilly sur Marne · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Drancy · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimy · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympique St Quentin · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille II · 0-6 (L)

Le Pays du Valois

2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Montlouis · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dieppe · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Feignies-Aulnoye · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Colmar · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs St Maur Lusitanos · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-14T17:00:00.000Z · Pays de Cassel 0-0 Le Pays du Valois (National 3 - Group E)
2025-11-01T17:30:00.000Z · Pays de Cassel 0-3 Le Pays du Valois (National 3 - Group E)
2025-02-22T17:00:00.000Z · Pays de Cassel 0-2 Le Pays du Valois (National 3 - Group E)
2024-10-05T17:00:00.000Z · Pays de Cassel 3-3 Le Pays du Valois (National 3 - Group E)
2024-04-06T16:30:00.000Z · Pays de Cassel 3-0 Le Pays du Valois (National 3 - Group G)
2023-11-25T17:00:00.000Z · Pays de Cassel 1-2 Le Pays du Valois (National 3 - Group G)

National 3 - Group E table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lille II	26	15	3	8	22	48
2	Croix Football IC	26	14	4	8	17	46
3	Le Pays du Valois	26	13	7	6	16	45
4	OCPAM	26	12	5	9	1	40
5	Vimy	26	11	6	9	5	39
6	Olympique St Quentin	26	10	7	9	2	37
7	Drancy	26	10	5	11	6	35
8	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	26	9	7	10	-4	34
9	Metz II	26	10	3	13	-5	33
10	Balagne	26	9	6	11	-1	33
11	Neuilly sur Marne	26	8	7	11	-12	31
12	Pays de Cassel	26	7	8	11	-15	29
13	Amiens SC II	26	8	5	13	-13	29
14	Reims II	26	5	9	12	-19	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.