· Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Pazarspor vs Erbaaspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Pazarspor and 1.18 for Erbaaspor, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Pazarspor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pazarspor win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pazarspor home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erbaaspor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pazarspor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Pazarspor and 1.18 for Erbaaspor, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Pazarspor
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Beykoz İshaklıspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokat Bld Plevnespor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Düzcespor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Erbaaspor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Küçükçekmece Sinopspor · 3-1 (W)
Erbaaspor
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Çorluspor 1947 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Güzide Gebzespor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pazarspor · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aliağa FAŞ · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Adana Demirspor · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pazarspor win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.