MAC³PARK Stadion · Referee Jannick van der Laan, Netherlands · Analysis updated 15:11 UTC
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.77 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Ajax the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ajax win
73.2% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 2.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PEC Zwolle home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ajax away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 0–28.4%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–37.7%
- 1–16.4%
Recent form
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-3 (L)
Ajax
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Sittard · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2026-03-01T11:15:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-0 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2025-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-3 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2025-03-09T13:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-1 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2024-11-24T15:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2024-07-05T12:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-0 Ajax (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-03-31T10:15:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-3 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2023-12-17T15:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-2 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2022-04-30T16:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-3 Ajax (Eredivisie)
- 2021-09-11T16:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ajax win, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.