PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.95 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Excelsior the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Excelsior win

78.2% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 2.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

PEC Zwolle home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

PEC Zwolle win9%

Draw13%

Excelsior win78%

Double chance 1X

22%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

91%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

0–29.0%
0–38.9%
1–28.4%
1–38.2%
0–46.5%

Recent form

PEC Zwolle

2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)

Excelsior

2026-10-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Groningen · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-12T12:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2025-12-20T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2024-04-06T18:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2023-10-22T12:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 4-2 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2020-12-15T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-2 Excelsior (KNVB Beker)
2019-03-17T15:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2018-10-06T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-0 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2018-04-14T18:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2017-12-09T18:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)
2017-04-01T16:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-1 Excelsior (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	5	15
8	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	-22	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Excelsior win, at 78.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.