PEC Zwolle vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.73 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.98. That distribution gives Fortuna Sittard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Fortuna Sittard win

68.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 2.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

PEC Zwolle home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Sittard away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

PEC Zwolle win15%

Draw16%

Fortuna Sittard win68%

Double chance 1X

32%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

85%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

1–28.7%
1–37.9%
0–27.0%
1–16.4%
0–36.3%

Recent form

PEC Zwolle

2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)

Fortuna Sittard

2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Willem II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T14:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-3 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2025-12-13T20:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-0 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2025-01-26T11:15:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 4-1 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2024-11-09T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 3-1 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2024-03-16T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-3 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2023-11-05T13:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-0 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2022-03-06T19:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-0 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2021-12-11T20:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-1 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2021-01-16T19:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-2 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)
2020-11-06T19:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-2 Fortuna Sittard (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Groningen	9	4	2	3	3	14
8	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	2	5	2	-1	11
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Cambuur	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	2	1	6	-12	7
16	Telstar	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Willem II	9	0	2	7	-17	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fortuna Sittard win, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.