· Analysis updated 16:12 UTC
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.53 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Sparta Rotterdam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sparta Rotterdam win
56.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 2.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PEC Zwolle home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–36.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–16.4%
- 2–35.6%
Recent form
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 1-3 (L)
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2026-03-08T11:15:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2025-11-08T20:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2025-03-15T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2024-11-30T20:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2024-02-04T15:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2023-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2023-07-14T14:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-3 Sparta Rotterdam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-05-11T18:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2021-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Rotterdam win, at 56.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.