· Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
PEC Zwolle vs Utrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.15 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Utrecht the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Utrecht win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PEC Zwolle home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Utrecht away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.9%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.4%
- 1–36.3%
Recent form
PEC Zwolle
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Groningen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 0-7 (L)
Utrecht
- 2026-10-24T14:30:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-22T13:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-1 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2025-08-31T12:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-2 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2025-02-01T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 3-3 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2024-08-11T12:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 0-1 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2024-04-03T18:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-5 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2023-08-27T10:15:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-0 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2022-05-07T18:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-1 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2021-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-5 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2021-01-30T17:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 3-3 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
- 2020-11-21T20:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle 1-1 Utrecht (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 4 | Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Utrecht win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.