Sportpark Ceintuurbaan · Analysis updated 11:46 UTC
PEC Zwolle W vs Heerenveen W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for PEC Zwolle W and 1.81 for Heerenveen W, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives PEC Zwolle W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.1% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PEC Zwolle W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Heerenveen W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–27.1%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
PEC Zwolle W
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht W · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag W · 2-4 (L)
Heerenveen W
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Twente W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · A vs De Graafschap W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ajax W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht W · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T15:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 1-1 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-11-16T15:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 1-0 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2025-03-30T14:45:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 2-1 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-12-21T13:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 2-2 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2024-01-28T13:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 2-2 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-11-04T13:00:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 2-0 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2023-03-24T18:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 2-0 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2022-11-04T18:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 2-1 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2022-05-13T17:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 1-1 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
- 2021-12-17T18:30:00.000Z · PEC Zwolle W 3-1 Heerenveen W (Eredivisie Women)
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.