Sportpark Ceintuurbaan · Analysis updated 08:29 UTC
PEC Zwolle W vs Twente W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for PEC Zwolle W and 3.88 for Twente W, a combined total of 4.88. That distribution gives Twente W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Twente W win
86.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 3.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
PEC Zwolle W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Twente W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Twente W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 5% / 8% / 86% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for PEC Zwolle W and 3.88 for Twente W, a combined 4.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
14%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–37.4%
- 1–37.4%
- 0–47.2%
- 1–47.2%
- 0–25.7%
Recent form
PEC Zwolle W
- 2026-10-04T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · H vs De Graafschap W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht W · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs ADO Den Haag W · 2-4 (L)
Twente W
- 2026-10-04T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Utrecht W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · A vs AZ W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV/Eindhoven W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen W · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Twente W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 18 |
| 2 | Ajax W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 3 | AZ W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 4 | PSV/Eindhoven W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Heerenveen W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -10 | 7 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 8 | De Graafschap W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 9 | Feyenoord W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | Utrecht W | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Twente W win, at 86.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.