· Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Pécsi MFC vs Sárbogárd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Pécsi MFC and 0.80 for Sárbogárd, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Pécsi MFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pécsi MFC win
76.0% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pécsi MFC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sárbogárd away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pécsi MFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for Pécsi MFC and 0.80 for Sárbogárd, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.7%
- 3–17.8%
Recent form
Pécsi MFC
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaposvar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferencváros II · 3-0 (W)
Sárbogárd
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Budaörs · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencváros II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pécsi MFC win, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.