Estadio Municipal de Las Pedroñeras · Analysis updated 16:20 UTC
Pedroñeras vs Toledo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Pedroñeras and 1.28 for Toledo, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Toledo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Toledo win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pedroñeras home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Toledo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.3%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–09.8%
Recent form
Pedroñeras
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toledo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cazalegas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Huracán Balazote · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marchamalo · 0-1 (L)
Toledo
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Solana · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Noblejas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintanar del Rey · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Pedroñeras 1-0 Toledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2026-01-11T11:00:00.000Z · Pedroñeras 1-2 Toledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2025-03-02T11:00:00.000Z · Pedroñeras 2-0 Toledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2024-10-19T15:30:00.000Z · Pedroñeras 0-2 Toledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2021-03-07T11:00:00.000Z · Pedroñeras 0-0 Toledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2020-12-08T16:00:00.000Z · Pedroñeras 0-2 Toledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2020-01-26T15:30:00.000Z · Pedroñeras 1-1 Toledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2019-09-07T18:30:00.000Z · Pedroñeras 0-4 Toledo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Illescas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | CD Villa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Almansa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 9 | Villacañas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 | Noblejas | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | San Clemente | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 | La Solana | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Quintanar del Rey | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Socuéllamos | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Toledo win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.