· Analysis updated 10:12 UTC
Pelhřimov vs Havlíčkův Brod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Pelhřimov and 1.77 for Havlíčkův Brod, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Havlíčkův Brod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.8% probability
Expected goals
1.74 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Pelhřimov home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Havlíčkův Brod away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Havlíčkův Brod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.74 goals for Pelhřimov and 1.77 for Havlíčkův Brod, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–18.0%
- 2–27.1%
- 0–15.3%
Recent form
Pelhřimov
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuřim · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 5-1 (W)
Havlíčkův Brod
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chotebor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Žďár nad Sázavou · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | FS Třebíč | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Sokol Tasovice | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 7 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Chotebor | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 | Humpolec | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.