Pelhřimov vs Tatran Bohunice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Pelhřimov and 1.87 for Tatran Bohunice, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Tatran Bohunice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Tatran Bohunice win

47.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.47 – 1.87

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pelhřimov home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Tatran Bohunice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tatran Bohunice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 31% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Pelhřimov and 1.87 for Tatran Bohunice, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Pelhřimov win31%

Draw22%

Tatran Bohunice win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.7%
1–29.1%
2–17.2%
2–26.7%
0–16.6%

Recent form

Pelhřimov

2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kuřim · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 5-1 (W)

Tatran Bohunice

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Kuřim · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bedrichov · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · Pelhřimov 1-2 Tatran Bohunice (4. liga - Divizie D)
2026-05-01T14:30:00.000Z · Pelhřimov 0-1 Tatran Bohunice (4. liga - Divizie D)
2025-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Pelhřimov 0-1 Tatran Bohunice (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kuřim	12	8	1	3	34	25
2	Sparta Brno	12	8	1	3	11	25
3	Tatran Bohunice	12	7	3	2	14	24
4	Velká Bíteš	12	7	3	2	8	24
5	Havlíčkův Brod	12	6	2	4	5	20
6	FS Třebíč	11	6	2	3	-2	20
7	Znojmo	12	5	3	4	5	18
8	Sokol Tasovice	11	4	5	2	7	17
9	Pelhřimov	11	4	2	5	3	14
10	Bystrc Kníničky	12	3	5	4	-4	14
11	Humpolec	11	2	4	5	-5	10
12	Ždírec nad Doubravou	11	2	4	5	-7	10
13	Chotebor	11	2	4	5	-11	10
14	Velké Meziříčí	11	2	4	5	-14	10
15	Žďár nad Sázavou	11	2	3	6	-3	9
16	Bedrichov	12	0	2	10	-41	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Tatran Bohunice win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.