Pelikan Łowicz vs Sokół Ostróda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Pelikan Łowicz and 1.08 for Sokół Ostróda, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Pelikan Łowicz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Pelikan Łowicz win

57.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Pelikan Łowicz home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sokół Ostróda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pelikan Łowicz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Pelikan Łowicz and 1.08 for Sokół Ostróda, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Pelikan Łowicz win58%

Draw22%

Sokół Ostróda win21%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.2%
2–19.9%
1–09.5%
2–09.2%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Pelikan Łowicz

2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wigry Suwałki · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Widzew II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 3-1 (W)

Sokół Ostróda

2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kleczew · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Mławianka Mława · 0-4 (L)
2023-06-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ursus Warszawa · 2-1 (W)
2023-06-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Błonianka Błonie · 2-1 (W)
2023-06-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2023-05-28T10:00:00.000Z · Pelikan Łowicz 1-1 Sokół Ostróda (III Liga - Group 1)
2022-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · Pelikan Łowicz 1-4 Sokół Ostróda (III Liga - Group 1)

III Liga - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weszlo	14	10	2	2	14	32
2	Wigry Suwałki	14	9	4	1	17	31
3	Swit	14	8	2	4	8	26
4	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	14	7	3	4	7	24
5	Pelikan Łowicz	14	7	3	4	4	24
6	Wisła Płock II	14	6	4	4	4	22
7	Ząbkovia Ząbki	14	6	4	4	4	22
8	Warta Sieradz	14	6	4	4	2	22
9	Olimpia Zambrów	14	6	3	5	1	21
10	Olimpia Elbląg	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Jagiellonia II	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Widzew II	14	4	4	6	0	16
13	Polonia Lidzbark Warm.	14	4	3	7	-3	15
14	ŁKS Łódź II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
15	Lechia T. Mazowiecki	14	4	2	8	-7	14
16	Mławianka Mława	14	4	2	8	-10	14
17	Troszyn	14	2	5	7	-15	11
18	Łomża	14	0	4	10	-18	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Pelikan Łowicz win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.